Monday, September 26, 2005
Gutshot draw and implied odds
Here is a hand I played on Party poker Saturday morning:
Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (8 handed) internettexasholdem.com
Preflop: Hero is Button with Qc, Js.
4 folds, LatePos/ raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, BigBlind/ calls, LatePos/ caps, Hero calls, BigBlind/ calls.
Flop: (12.50 SB) Ts, Ah, 6d (3 players)
BigBlind checks, LatePos bets, Hero calls, BigBlind calls.
Turn: (7.75 BB) 5s (3 players)
BigBlind checks, LatePos bets, Hero calls, BigBlind folds.
River: (9.75 BB) Kc (2 players)
LatePos bets, Hero raises, LatePos 3-bets, Hero caps, LatePos calls.
Final Pot: 17.75 BB
Results in white below:
LatePos has Ad Kd (two pair, aces and kings).
Hero has Qc Js (straight, ace high).
The next hand the LatePos player blurts out:
LatePos: garbage fckn player
Hero: :-)
He just couldn't seem to believe that this wasn't the stupidest play he'd ever seen. Well, was it? Here's my thinking as I played the hand. This pretty much sums up what I was thinking except I rounded off some of the numbers in my head.
Preflop action: It's folded to the LatePos player who raises. Now granted this guy is a tight player with a VPIP% of 18.8% and a PFR% of 8% but he opened from one off the button. Even with those tight statistics he could be opening with a lot of hands that I don't mind going up against. Any ace, a suited king, TJ, QT, small pairs all of these would be reasonable holdings for him at this point. I've a got a good enough hand to play, I may as well raise to define his hand a little bit better. It works, he reraises. This narrows his hand down quite a bit, I'd put him on AJ, KQ or better non-pair or a pocket pair TT or above. I do not like to go up against these hands with QJ but with 10 bets already in the pot I've got to call for one more.
The flop: I've flopped a gutshot straight draw with a pretty non threatening board. I'm almost surely up against a pair bigger than mine so my only real draw is to the straight. I'm getting 13.5 to 1 to call. That's good enough to call with four outs (10.75 to 1) On one hand I have the BB still left to act behind me and he could check raise which would be bad but he could call which would improve the price that the pot is laying me. That is probably a wash. So I call.
The turn: I'm going to ignore the backdoor flush possibility. You can't run scared every time a potential draw hits the board. Due to the doubling of the bet size on tea turn I now have only 8.75 to 1 pot odds. That's not good enough to call on it's own. But with a close decision such as this one you should consider all of the options before just throwing away your hand. Implied odds take into account any extra money you are likely to make if you make your hand. If I hit an inside straight, he is not likely to see it coming so I will most likely to be able to raise and get two bets out of him. Those two extra bets bring the odds up to 10.75 to 1. I am just barely getting the odds to call. So I do. I'm not saying that this is a definite call. It is marginal call. Call or fold, it probably doesn't make any difference in your bottom line. So why not call. If I hit my straight this guy just might go off on tilt.
The river comes the perfect King. As if to make a point about implied odds he doesn't just go for two bets, but we cap it. Beautiful.
So there you have it. A marginal play that paid off three times. It paid when I hit the lucky card and won a huge pot. It paid when this guy turned around and badmouthed me for several minutes in front of the whole table. You just can't buy that kind of advertising. And it paid because now my name has a permanent "horrible player" sticky note next to it in this one guy's notebook.
You gotta have a little bit of gamble in you, otherwise you are surely playing the wrong game.
Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (8 handed) internettexasholdem.com
Preflop: Hero is Button with Qc, Js.
4 folds, LatePos/ raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, BigBlind/ calls, LatePos/ caps, Hero calls, BigBlind/ calls.
Flop: (12.50 SB) Ts, Ah, 6d (3 players)
BigBlind checks, LatePos bets, Hero calls, BigBlind calls.
Turn: (7.75 BB) 5s (3 players)
BigBlind checks, LatePos bets, Hero calls, BigBlind folds.
River: (9.75 BB) Kc (2 players)
LatePos bets, Hero raises, LatePos 3-bets, Hero caps, LatePos calls.
Final Pot: 17.75 BB
Results in white below:
LatePos has Ad Kd (two pair, aces and kings).
Hero has Qc Js (straight, ace high).
The next hand the LatePos player blurts out:
LatePos: garbage fckn player
Hero: :-)
He just couldn't seem to believe that this wasn't the stupidest play he'd ever seen. Well, was it? Here's my thinking as I played the hand. This pretty much sums up what I was thinking except I rounded off some of the numbers in my head.
Preflop action: It's folded to the LatePos player who raises. Now granted this guy is a tight player with a VPIP% of 18.8% and a PFR% of 8% but he opened from one off the button. Even with those tight statistics he could be opening with a lot of hands that I don't mind going up against. Any ace, a suited king, TJ, QT, small pairs all of these would be reasonable holdings for him at this point. I've a got a good enough hand to play, I may as well raise to define his hand a little bit better. It works, he reraises. This narrows his hand down quite a bit, I'd put him on AJ, KQ or better non-pair or a pocket pair TT or above. I do not like to go up against these hands with QJ but with 10 bets already in the pot I've got to call for one more.
The flop: I've flopped a gutshot straight draw with a pretty non threatening board. I'm almost surely up against a pair bigger than mine so my only real draw is to the straight. I'm getting 13.5 to 1 to call. That's good enough to call with four outs (10.75 to 1) On one hand I have the BB still left to act behind me and he could check raise which would be bad but he could call which would improve the price that the pot is laying me. That is probably a wash. So I call.
The turn: I'm going to ignore the backdoor flush possibility. You can't run scared every time a potential draw hits the board. Due to the doubling of the bet size on tea turn I now have only 8.75 to 1 pot odds. That's not good enough to call on it's own. But with a close decision such as this one you should consider all of the options before just throwing away your hand. Implied odds take into account any extra money you are likely to make if you make your hand. If I hit an inside straight, he is not likely to see it coming so I will most likely to be able to raise and get two bets out of him. Those two extra bets bring the odds up to 10.75 to 1. I am just barely getting the odds to call. So I do. I'm not saying that this is a definite call. It is marginal call. Call or fold, it probably doesn't make any difference in your bottom line. So why not call. If I hit my straight this guy just might go off on tilt.
The river comes the perfect King. As if to make a point about implied odds he doesn't just go for two bets, but we cap it. Beautiful.
So there you have it. A marginal play that paid off three times. It paid when I hit the lucky card and won a huge pot. It paid when this guy turned around and badmouthed me for several minutes in front of the whole table. You just can't buy that kind of advertising. And it paid because now my name has a permanent "horrible player" sticky note next to it in this one guy's notebook.
You gotta have a little bit of gamble in you, otherwise you are surely playing the wrong game.
